When NFL teams go shopping in 11 days, they will face a choice on the showroom floor: the sensible sedan or the shiny sports car.
The sedan might be the safer investment, offering better reliability, but that sports car potentially could take a franchise from 0 to 60 in a flash.
If the mock drafts and league whispers are to be believed, it increasingly appears that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton could be the overall No.1 draft pick - to the Carolina Panthers - on April 28.
Despite concerns about Newton's maturity and relative lack of big-time college experience, the Panthers - 2-14 last season - might make the riskier choice.
"The young man has tremendous talent," said new Panthers coach Ron Rivera, adding that Carolina was looking at "eight to 10 guys" for the No.1 pick.
"He has natural size and can run and has a tremendous arm," Rivera said. "He's got a good pocket presence already. I think he's well on his way."
Analysts are convinced. Five of six from ESPN.com, the NFL Network and NFL.com predict Newton will go No.1. Only Brian Baldinger of the NFL Network thinks otherwise, pegging Newton at No.4 to Cincinnati.
Baldinger also is the only analyst who prefers that sensible sedan - Blaine Gabbert of Missouri, whom he predicts will go No.3 to Buffalo.
In February at the NFL combine, Gabbert appeared to have more support as the top quarterback. Despite Newton's reportedly shaky interview sessions with teams at the combine, it appears the subsequent private workouts have righted Newton's ship.
"Cam is an explosive athlete," Gabbert said. "He has all the talent in the world. We're going to compete and fight it out, and may the best man win."
Nobody argues Newton's talent. In his only year at Auburn, he won the Heisman Trophy and led the Tigers to a national championship. He completed 66 percent of his passes and threw for 30 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and added 1,473 yards rushing and 20 TDs.
The concerns include his character - allegations of his father soliciting money for Newton's services when he was a junior-college player two years ago, plus a comment just before the combine that he wanted to be an entertainment icon once he made the NFL.
His lack of experience is a worry, as well. He has thrown 280 passes at the major-college level, and only once last season did he attempt more than 30 throws in a game.
In contrast, Gabbert was a two-year starter at Missouri with 933 career attempts, including 17 games with more than 30 passes.
At the combine, Gabbert played up his intelligence and work ethic.
"I'm going to outwork everybody," he said. "I'm never going to be outworked by someone else. I think the biggest thing in drafting a quarterback is you've got to show that you're smart - show that you're smart on the (chalk) board."
Newton also mentioned how hard he plans to work.
NFL executives don't appear worried about the spread-style offenses that both Newton and Gabbert ran in college. That quickly is becoming old news as more and more quarterbacks come out of spread systems.
Last season, three rookie quarterbacks who operated spreads in college acquitted themselves pretty well.
Sam Bradford (Oklahoma/St. Louis Rams), Colt McCoy (Texas/Cleveland Browns) and Tim Tebow (Florida/Denver Broncos) combined to complete 59.3 percent of their passes, with more touchdowns (29) than interceptions (27). Instead, the concern is about who can adjust to a pro-style offense more quickly.
"A lot of questions are retention questions - learning ability, how quick can you actually learn and retain information," Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik said. "I think Cam is going to have to come here and prove that he can handle the volume in the National Football League and what that means, because he obviously has done a great job at the collegiate level.
"That's going to be the No.1 thing. Because we all know he has the athleticism, the strength and physical attributes to be successful. But it's the mental attributes that you really have to figure out."
At this point, the athleticism, strength and physical attributes appear to be worth the risk.
New York Giants general manager Jerry Reese said of Newton: "Everybody should want to take a chance on talent like that."
For his part, Newton is still shaking his head at how much his life has changed recently, from quarterbacking Blinn College in 2009 to possibly becoming the NFL's top draft pick.
"This whole path to where I am has been something of a whirlwind, to say the least," Newton said. "To know (that) 365 days ago I was attending class at Auburn. Even the Auburn fans didn't even know what they was getting at this time last year."
The NFL doesn't know what it's getting, either. But that won't matter on draft day.
Hard to pay a draft choice big bucks like they will get right out of school. It is a crap shoot as the pro's are a lot more difficult to read and pass against than in college.
ReplyDeleteBetter to trade for experience and get a QB already in the league. I understand Andersen could be traded back from his vacation in Arizona!